{"id":1352,"date":"2018-10-09T17:44:46","date_gmt":"2018-10-10T03:44:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hawaii.concon.info\/?page_id=1352"},"modified":"2024-10-15T05:53:02","modified_gmt":"2024-10-15T15:53:02","slug":"competitiveness-of-legislative-elections","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/hawaii.concon.info\/?page_id=1352","title":{"rendered":"Competitiveness of Legislative Elections"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; fullwidth=&#8221;on&#8221; admin_label=&#8221;Section Header&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.17.5&#8243; global_module=&#8221;145&#8243; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_fullwidth_header text_orientation=&#8221;center&#8221; header_fullscreen=&#8221;on&#8221; header_scroll_down=&#8221;on&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.16&#8243; title_font=&#8221;|700|||||||&#8221; subhead_font=&#8221;|700|||||||&#8221; subhead_text_align=&#8221;center&#8221; background_color=&#8221;rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)&#8221; background_image=&#8221;https:\/\/hawaii.concon.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/HawaiiStateCapitol.jpg&#8221; background_layout=&#8221;light&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; button_one_text_size__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_one_text_size__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_two_text_size__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_two_text_size__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_one_text_color__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_one_text_color__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_two_text_color__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_two_text_color__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_one_border_width__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_one_border_width__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_two_border_width__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_two_border_width__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_one_border_color__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_one_border_color__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_two_border_color__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_two_border_color__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_one_border_radius__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_one_border_radius__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_two_border_radius__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_two_border_radius__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_one_letter_spacing__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_one_letter_spacing__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_two_letter_spacing__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_two_letter_spacing__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_one_bg_color__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_one_bg_color__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_two_bg_color__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_two_bg_color__hover=&#8221;null&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h1 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #ffcc00;\"><strong>The Hawai\u02bbi <\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n<h1 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #ffcc00;\"><strong>State Constitutional Convention Clearinghouse<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #ffcc00;\"><strong> Information Related to Hawai\u02bbi&#8217;s November 6, 2018 State Constitutional Convention Referendum<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>[\/et_pb_fullwidth_header][et_pb_fullwidth_post_title comments=&#8221;off&#8221; featured_image=&#8221;off&#8221; disabled_on=&#8221;on|on|on&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.16&#8243; disabled=&#8221;on&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][\/et_pb_fullwidth_post_title][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.16&#8243; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;4.16&#8243; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.16&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; custom_padding__hover=&#8221;|||&#8221;][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.0&#8243; hover_enabled=&#8221;0&#8243; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; sticky_enabled=&#8221;0&#8243;]<\/p>\n<p>Note the paradox between low legislative approval and high legislative entrenchment.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Articles on Legislature Incumbent Entrenchment<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Incumbent Re-election Rates<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Snider, J.H.,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.civilbeat.org\/2018\/09\/want-term-limits-a-con-con-is-your-only-hope\/?utm_source=Civil%20Beat%20Master%20List&amp;utm_campaign=55e395c3b5-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_09_21_06_50&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_51c2dd3cf3-55e395c3b5-401817913&amp;mc_cid=55e395c3b5&amp;mc_eid=910cbc8e7f\">Want Term Limits? A Con Con Is Your Only Hope<\/a>, Civil Beat, September 21, 2018.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/elections.staradvertiser.com\/\">Primary Election Results<\/a>, Star-Advertiser, August 12, 2018.<\/p>\n<p>Hill, John,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.civilbeat.org\/2018\/08\/sen-gil-riviere-has-big-lead-over-clayton-hee-in-key-legislative-race\/?utm_source=Civil+Beat+Master+List&amp;utm_campaign=b92e37920c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_12_09_24&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_51c2dd3cf3-b92e37920c-401817913&amp;mc_cid=b92e37920c&amp;mc_eid=910cbc8e7f\">3 Incumbent Lawmakers Lose State Legislative Seats<\/a>, Civil Beat, August 11, 2018.<\/p>\n<p><strong>National Data<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a class=\"in-cell-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.followthemoney.org\/research\/institute-reports\/money-incumbency-in-2015-and-2016-state-legislative-races\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">O&#8217;Neill, Ciara, Money and Incumbency in State Legislative Races, 2015 and 2016, <\/a>National Institute on Money on Money in Politics, November 1, 2017<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Hawaii_State_Senate_elections,_2016\">2016 Election Competitiveness&#8211;Senate<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Hawaii_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2016\">2016 Election Competitiveness&#8211;House<\/a>, BallotPedia. [These are calculation prior to the 2016 election.]<\/p>\n<p>Casey, Linda, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.followthemoney.org\/research\/institute-reports\/2013-and-2014-money-and-incumbency-in-state-legislative-races\">2013 and 2014: Money and Incumbency in State Legislative Races<\/a>, FollowTheMoney.org, March 9, 2016.<\/p>\n<p>Holden, Zach, <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Hawaii_State_Senate_elections,_2016\">2013 and 2014: Monetary Competitiveness in State Legislative Races<\/a>, FollowTheMoney.org, March 9, 2016.<\/p>\n<p>Ansolabeher, Stephen, and James Snyder,<a href=\"http:\/\/economics.mit.edu\/files\/1205\"> The Incumbency Advantage in U.S. Elections: An Analysis of State and Federal Offices<\/a>, 1942-2000, MIT Working Paper, June 2001.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Lack of Political Party Competition<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Eagle, Nathan, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.civilbeat.org\/2018\/08\/the-hawaii-republican-partys-slow-path-to-extinction\/\">The Hawaii Republican Party\u2019s Slow Path To Extinction<\/a>, Civil Beat, August 7, 2018.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<hr \/>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Articles on Low Approval of the Legislature<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Eagle, Nathan,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.civilbeat.org\/2018\/09\/in-hawaii-people-like-trump-better-than-they-like-the-legislature\/?utm_source=Civil%20Beat%20Master%20List&amp;utm_campaign=35a68ae874-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_09_25_07_46&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_51c2dd3cf3-35a68ae874-401817913&amp;mc_cid=35a68ae874&amp;mc_eid=910cbc8e7f\">In Hawaii, People Like Trump Better Than They Like The Legislature<\/a>, Civil Beat,September 26, 2018.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.staradvertiser.com\/staradvertiser-poll\/grade-give-just-completed-2018-legislature\/\">What grade do you give the just-completed 2018 Legislature?<\/a>, Honolulu Star-Advertiser, May 4, 2018.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/templatelab.com\/public-trust-in-government\/\">Public Trust in Government: 1958-2017<\/a>, Pew Research Center, December 14,\u00a0 2017. <strong>Note:<\/strong> Covers the problem of low government trust\/approval more generally.<\/p>\n<p>Riffkin, Rebecca, <a href=\"https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/176102\/americans-say-federal-gov-wastes-cents-dollar.aspx\">Americans Say Federal Gov&#8217;t Wastes 51 Cents on the Dollar; Consider state and local governments a bit less wasteful<\/a>, Gallup, September 17,\u00a0 2014.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<hr \/>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Articles on Low Turnout<br \/><\/strong><strong>(people are less likely to vote with entrenched incumbents)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Lovell, Blaze, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.civilbeat.org\/2018\/11\/hawaiis-voter-turnout-was-almost-a-historic-low\/?utm_source=Civil+Beat+Master+List&amp;utm_campaign=ff7afa0e86-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_11_08_06_02&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_51c2dd3cf3-ff7afa0e86-401817913&amp;mc_cid=ff7afa0e86&amp;mc_eid=910cbc8e7f\">Hawaii\u2019s Voter Turnout Was Almost A Historic Low<\/a>, Civil Beat, November 7, 2018.<\/p>\n<p>Ryan, Tracy, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.civilbeat.org\/2018\/08\/how-to-really-fix-hawaiis-elections\/?utm_source=Civil+Beat+Master+List&amp;utm_campaign=f0fdcfe067-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_20_09_30&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_51c2dd3cf3-f0fdcfe067-401817913&amp;mc_cid=f0fdcfe067&amp;mc_eid=910cbc8e7f\">How To Really Fix Hawaii\u2019s Elections<\/a>, Civil Beat, August 21, 2018.<\/p>\n<p>Grube, Nick,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.civilbeat.org\/2014\/11\/hawaii-sets-record-low-for-voter-turnout-in-a-general-election\/\">Hawaii Sets Record Low for Voter Turnout in a General Election<\/a>, Civil Beat, November 4, 2014.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.civilbeat.org\/2016\/08\/34-8-percent-turnout-hawaii-must-do-better\/\">Editorial: 34.8 Percent Turnout? Hawaii Must Do Better<\/a>, Civil Beat, August 22, 2018.<\/p>\n<p>Teague, Courtney,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.civilbeat.org\/2018\/06\/how-low-is-hawaii-voter-turnout\/?utm_source=Civil+Beat+Master+List&amp;utm_campaign=f98fb49aba-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_06_22_03_43&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_51c2dd3cf3-f98fb49aba-401795381&amp;mc_cid=f98fb49aba&amp;mc_eid=99b6e596b2\">How Low Is Hawaii Voter Turnout?<\/a>, Civil Beat, June 22, 2018.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/elections.hawaii.gov\/wp-content\/results\/histatewide.pdf\">Hawaii Office of Elections<\/a>.\u00a0 Turnout at August 11, 2018 Primary Election: <a href=\"https:\/\/elections.hawaii.gov\/wp-content\/results\/histatewide.pdf\">38.6%<\/a>. This turnout figure is based on voters\/registered voters, not voters\/eligible voters.\u00a0 Not all eligible voters register to vote.<\/p>\n<p><strong>National and Academic Data<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Marschall, Melissa, and John Lappie. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.liebertpub.com\/doi\/pdfplus\/10.1089\/elj.2017.0462\">Rules, Politics, and Policy<\/a>, <em>Election Law Journal,<\/em>\u00a0September 2018. &#8220;[B]allots with more contested races draw more voters to the polls&#8230; contestation is likely to stimulate more interest, mobilize more voters, and ultimately increase turnout.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nonprofitvote.org\/america-goes-to-the-polls-2016\/execsummary\/\">2016 State Voter Turnout Rankings in America Goes to the Polls<\/a>, Nonprofit Vote, 2017.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.electproject.org\/2016g\">2016 November General Election Turnout Rates<\/a>, United States Election Project. Available at http:\/\/www.electproject.org\/2016g.<\/p>\n<p>Sauter, Michael, <a href=\"https:\/\/247wallst.com\/special-report\/2016\/10\/17\/states-with-the-highest-voter-turnout\/11\/\">States With the Highest (and Lowest) Voter Turnout<\/a>, 24\/7 WallSt, October 17, 2016.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.electproject.org\/2016g\">2016 November General Election Turnout Rates<\/a>, United States Election Project.<\/p>\n<p>Sutter, John D., <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2012\/10\/21\/opinion\/change-the-list-voter-turnout-hawaii\/index.html\">Hawaii: The state that doesn&#8217;t vote<\/a>, CNN, Oct. 24, 2012<\/p>\n<p>For an academic study, see\u00a0Marschall, Melissa, and John Lappie, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.liebertpub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1089\/elj.2017.0462#utm_source=ETOC&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=elj\">Turnout in Local Elections: Is Timing Really Everything?,\u00a0Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy<\/a>, Vol. 17, No. 3, September 18, 2018.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><\/h3>\n<hr \/>\n<hr \/>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Advantage of Incumbency &amp; Money in Hawaii State Legislative Races, 2015-2016<\/strong><\/h3>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>(Data Compiled by National Institute of Money in State Politics)<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table dir=\"ltr\" border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Contested General Election Races, 2015 &amp; 2016&quot;}\">\n<h4><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Contested General Election Races, 2015 &amp; 2016<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Money Advantage&quot;}\"><strong>Money Advantage<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Number of Legislative Incumbents&quot;}\">Number of Legislative Incumbents<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:34}\">34<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Number of Legislative Incumbent Monetary Leaders&quot;}\">Number of Legislative Incumbent Monetary Leaders<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:32}\">32<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Percent of Legislative Incumbents Who Were Monetary Leaders&quot;}\">Percent of Legislative Incumbents Who Were Monetary Leaders<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0.95}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0%&quot;,1]\">95%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Money and Incumbency Advantage&quot;}\"><strong>Money and Incumbency Advantage<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Success Percent of Monetary Legislative Leaders&quot;}\">Success Percent of Monetary Legislative Leaders<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:1}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0%&quot;,1]\">100%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Success Percent of Legislative Incumbents&quot;}\">Success Percent of Legislative Incumbents<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0.94}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0%&quot;,1]\">94%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Success Percent of Legislative Incumbent Monetary Leaders&quot;}\">Success Percent of Legislative Incumbent Monetary Leaders<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:1}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0%&quot;,1]\"><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><strong>100%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Contested Seats&quot;}\"><strong>Contested Seats<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Number of Legislative Seats Up for Election&quot;}\">Number of Legislative Seats Up for Election<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:64}\">64<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Number of Contested Legislative Seats&quot;}\">Number of Contested Legislative Seats<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:38}\">38<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Percent of Legislative Seats in Contested Races&quot;}\">Percent of Legislative Seats in Contested Races<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0.59}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0%&quot;,1]\">59%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Effect of Money Advantage on Non-Incumbent Candidates&quot;}\"><strong>Effect of Money Advantage on Non-Incumbent Candidates<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Legislative Candidates With Neither Incumbency nor Monetary Advantage in Contested General Elections&quot;}\">Legislative Candidates With Neither Incumbency nor Monetary Advantage in Contested General Elections<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:42}\">42<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Success Rate of Legislative Candidates With Neither Advantage&quot;}\">Success Rate of Legislative Candidates With Neither Advantage<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0%&quot;,1]\">0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Hawaii's Rank Among the fifty U.S. states:&quot;}\">Hawaii&#8217;s Rank Among the fifty U.S. states:<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:50}\">50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Legislative Non-Incumbents With Monetary Advantage in Contested General Elections&quot;}\">Legislative Non-Incumbents With Monetary Advantage in Contested General Elections<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:6}\">6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Success Rate of Legislative Non-Incumbents With Monetary Advantage&quot;}\">Success Rate of Legislative Non-Incumbents With Monetary Advantage<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:1}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0%&quot;,1]\"><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><strong>100%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Hawaii's Rank Among the fifty U.S. states:&quot;}\">Hawaii&#8217;s Rank Among the fifty U.S. states:<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:50}\">50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Both Primary and General Election Races, 2015 &amp; 2016&quot;}\">\n<h4><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Both Primary and General Election Races, 2015 &amp; 2016<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Success Rate Among All Winners&quot;}\"><strong>Success Rate Among All Winners<\/strong><\/td>\n<td data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,2,&quot;#,##0&quot;,1]\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Number of Legislative Winners&quot;}\">Number of Legislative Winners<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:64}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,2,&quot;#,##0&quot;,1]\">64<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Number of Incumbent Legislative Winners&quot;}\">Number of Incumbent Legislative Winners<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:58}\">58<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Percent of Legislative Incumbent Winners&quot;}\">Percent of Legislative Incumbent Winners<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0.91}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0%&quot;,1]\">91%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Success Rate Among Legislative Incumbents&quot;}\"><strong>Success Rate Among Legislative Incumbents<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Number of Legislative Incumbents&quot;}\">Number of Legislative Incumbents<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:61}\">61<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Number of Incumbent Legislative Winners&quot;}\">Number of Incumbent Legislative Winners<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:58}\">58<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Percent of Legislative Incumbents Who Won&quot;}\">Percent of Legislative Incumbents Who Won<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0.95}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0%&quot;,1]\"><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><strong>95%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><strong>Source:\u00a0<\/strong><a class=\"in-cell-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.followthemoney.org\/research\/institute-reports\/money-incumbency-in-2015-and-2016-state-legislative-races\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">O&#8217;Neill, Ciara, Money and Incumbency in State Legislative Races, 2015 and 2016, National Institute on Money on Money in Politics, November 1, 2017<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Note:<\/strong> Some of this data was discussed in Snider, J.H.,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.civilbeat.org\/2018\/09\/want-term-limits-a-con-con-is-your-only-hope\/?utm_source=Civil%20Beat%20Master%20List&amp;utm_campaign=55e395c3b5-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_09_21_06_50&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_51c2dd3cf3-55e395c3b5-401817913&amp;mc_cid=55e395c3b5&amp;mc_eid=910cbc8e7f\">Want Term Limits? A Con Con Is Your Only Hope<\/a>, Civil Beat, September 21, 2018.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<hr \/>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Competitiveness of Hawaii Legislative Elections<\/strong><\/h3>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>(Data Compiled by J.H. Snider)<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table dir=\"ltr\" border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"254\" \/>\n<col width=\"83\" \/>\n<col width=\"75\" \/>\n<col width=\"66\" \/><\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;House&quot;}\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>House<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Senate&quot;}\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Senate<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Totals&quot;}\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Totals<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Total Seats&quot;}\">Total Seats<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:51}\">51<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:25}\">25<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:76}\">76<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Up for grabs in 2018&quot;}\">Up for grabs in 2018<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:51}\">51<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:13}\">13<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:64}\">64<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Primary Election (Aug. 11, 2018 )&quot;}\"><strong>Primary Election (Aug. 11, 2018 )<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Seats up for grabs with all incumbents&quot;}\">Seats up for grabs with all incumbents<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:44}\">44<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:10}\">10<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:54}\">54<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Incumbents who lost #&quot;}\">Incumbents who lost #<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:2}\">2<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:1}\">1<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:3}\">3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Incumbents who lost %&quot;}\">Incumbents who lost %<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0.045454545454545456}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0.0%&quot;]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-1]C[0]\/R[-2]C[0]\">4.5%<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0.1}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0.0%&quot;]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-1]C[0]\/R[-2]C[0]\">10.0%<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0.05555555555555555}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0.0%&quot;]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-1]C[0]\/R[-2]C[0]\">5.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Seats up for grabs with elected incumbents&quot;}\">Seats up for grabs with elected incumbents<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:43}\">43<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:10}\">10<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:53}\">53<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Elected incumbents who lost #&quot;}\">Elected incumbents who lost #<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:1}\">1<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:1}\">1<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:2}\">2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Elected incumbents who lost %&quot;}\">Elected incumbents who lost %<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0.023255813953488372}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0.0%&quot;]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-1]C[0]\/R[-2]C[0]\">2.3%<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0.1}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0.0%&quot;]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-1]C[0]\/R[-2]C[0]\">10.0%<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0.03773584905660377}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0.0%&quot;]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-1]C[0]\/R[-2]C[0]\">3.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Incumbent Re-election Rate:<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Incumbent Re-election Rate:#&quot;}\"><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0.9622641509433962}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0.0%&quot;]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=1-R[-1]C[0]\"><strong><span style=\"color: #993300;\">96.2%<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Unapposed incumbents&quot;}\">Unapposed incumbents<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:17}\">17<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:1}\">1<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:18}\">18<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Democrats without a Republican challenger&quot;}\">Democrats without a Republican challenger<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:39}\">39<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;2016-2018 Partisan Makeup of State Legislature*&quot;}\">\n<div>\n<div><strong>2016-2018 Partisan Makeup of State Legislature*<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Democrats #&quot;}\">Democrats #<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:46}\">46<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:25}\">25<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:71}\">71<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Republicans #&quot;}\">Republicans #<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:5}\">5<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0}\">0<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:5}\">5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Democrats %&quot;}\">Democrats %<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0.9019607843137255}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0.0%&quot;]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-2]C[0]\/R[-19]C[0]\">90.2%<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:1}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0.0%&quot;]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-2]C[0]\/R[-19]C[0]\">100.0%<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0.9342105263157895}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0.0%&quot;]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-2]C[0]\/R[-19]C[0]\">93.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Republicans %&quot;}\">Republicans %<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0.0980392156862745}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0.0%&quot;]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=1-R[-1]C[0]\">9.8%<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0.0%&quot;]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=1-R[-1]C[0]\">0.0%<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0.06578947368421051}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0.0%&quot;]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=1-R[-1]C[0]\">6.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Expected Partisan Makeup of State Legislature After Nov. 6, 2018 General Election**&quot;}\">\n<div>\n<div><strong>Expected Partisan Makeup of State Legislature After Nov. 6, 2018 General Election**<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Democrats #&quot;}\">Democrats #<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:47}\">47<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:25}\">25<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:72}\">72<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Republicans #&quot;}\">Republicans #<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:4}\">4<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0}\">0<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:4}\">4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Democrats %&quot;}\">Democrats %<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0.9215686274509803}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0.0%&quot;]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-2]C[0]\/R[-25]C[0]\">92.2%<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:1}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0.0%&quot;]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-2]C[0]\/R[-25]C[0]\">100.0%<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0.9473684210526315}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0.0%&quot;]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-2]C[0]\/R[-25]C[0]\">94.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Republicans %&quot;}\">Republicans %<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0.0784313725490196}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0.0%&quot;]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-2]C[0]\/R[-26]C[0]\">7.8%<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0.0%&quot;]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-2]C[0]\/R[-26]C[0]\">0.0%<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:0.05263157894736842}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,&quot;0.0%&quot;]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-2]C[0]\/R[-26]C[0]\">5.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Unapposed incumbents&quot;}\">Unapposed incumbents<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{&quot;1&quot;:3,&quot;3&quot;:36}\">36<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>* Of all fifty state legislatures in the United States, Hawaii ranks first in one-party rule for the 2016-2018 legislative session whether the metric is the State Senate, the State House, or the combined Legislature. See the raw data at https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Partisan_composition_of_state_legislatures.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>** As Civil Beat Reporter Marcel Honore observed: &#8220;The close candidate races this year all appear to have been resolved in the primary election&#8230;.&#8221; See Honore, Marcel, &#8220;The Primary Is Over So What\u2019s Ahead For The General Election?&#8221;, Civil Beat, August 16, 2018.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div># This is higher than the much maligned average incumbent re-election rate of the U.S. Congress between 1964 and the present. See Reelection Rates Over the Years, Center for Responseive Politics, https:\/\/www.opensecrets.org\/overview\/reelect.php. It is also higher than the similarly maligned average incumbent re-election rate for state legislatures from 2001-2016. See Success Rates in Contested General Elections for State Legislatures, 2001-2016, National Institute of Money in State Politics, https:\/\/www.followthemoney.org\/research\/institute-reports\/money-incumbency-in-2015-and-2016-state-legislative-races.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>Sources:\u00a0 \u00a0<\/strong><a class=\"in-cell-link\" href=\"https:\/\/elections.hawaii.gov\/wp-content\/results\/histatewide.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">August 11, 2018 Primary Election Results, Hawaii State Office of Elections<\/a>;\u00a0<a class=\"in-cell-link\" href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Partisan_composition_of_state_legislatures\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Partisan composition of state legislatures, <\/a>Ballotpedia. Access August 16, 2018.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Note:<\/strong> Some of this data was discussed in Snider, J.H.,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.civilbeat.org\/2018\/09\/want-term-limits-a-con-con-is-your-only-hope\/?utm_source=Civil%20Beat%20Master%20List&amp;utm_campaign=55e395c3b5-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_09_21_06_50&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_51c2dd3cf3-55e395c3b5-401817913&amp;mc_cid=55e395c3b5&amp;mc_eid=910cbc8e7f\">Want Term Limits? A Con Con Is Your Only Hope<\/a>, Civil Beat, September 21, 2018.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<hr \/>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Projected Competitiveness After the Nov. 6 Election<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>See <a href=\"https:\/\/www.klarnerpolitics.org\/\">Klarner Politics<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Hawai\u02bbi State Constitutional Convention Clearinghouse Information Related to Hawai\u02bbi&#8217;s November 6, 2018 State Constitutional Convention ReferendumNote the paradox between low legislative approval and high legislative entrenchment. &nbsp; Articles on Legislature Incumbent Entrenchment &nbsp; Incumbent Re-election Rates Snider, J.H.,\u00a0Want Term Limits? A Con Con Is Your Only Hope, Civil Beat, September 21, 2018. Primary Election [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":1462,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"<p>\u00a0<\/p><h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><style type=\"text\/css\"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--><\/style><\/h3><h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> Money & Incumbency in Hawaii State Legislative Races, 2015-2016<\/strong><\/h3><h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>(Compiled by National Institute of Money in State Politics)<\/strong><\/h4><p>\u00a0<\/p><table dir=\"ltr\" border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\"><tbody><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Contested General Election Races, 2015 & 2016\"}\"><h4><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Contested General Election Races, 2015 & 2016<\/strong><\/span><\/h4><\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Money Advantage\"}\"><strong>Money Advantage<\/strong><\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Number of Legislative Incumbents\"}\">Number of Legislative Incumbents<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":34}\">34<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Number of Legislative Incumbent Monetary Leaders\"}\">Number of Legislative Incumbent Monetary Leaders<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":32}\">32<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Percent of Legislative Incumbents Who Were Monetary Leaders\"}\">Percent of Legislative Incumbents Who Were Monetary Leaders<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0.95}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0%\",1]\">95%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Money and Incumbency Advantage\"}\"><strong>Money and Incumbency Advantage<\/strong><\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Success Percent of Monetary Legislative Leaders\"}\">Success Percent of Monetary Legislative Leaders<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":1}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0%\",1]\">100%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Success Percent of Legislative Incumbents\"}\">Success Percent of Legislative Incumbents<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0.94}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0%\",1]\">94%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Success Percent of Legislative Incumbent Monetary Leaders\"}\">Success Percent of Legislative Incumbent Monetary Leaders<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":1}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0%\",1]\"><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><strong>100%<\/strong><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Contested Seats\"}\"><strong>Contested Seats<\/strong><\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Number of Legislative Seats Up for Election\"}\">Number of Legislative Seats Up for Election<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":64}\">64<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Number of Contested Legislative Seats\"}\">Number of Contested Legislative Seats<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":38}\">38<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Percent of Legislative Seats in Contested Races\"}\">Percent of Legislative Seats in Contested Races<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0.59}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0%\",1]\">59%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Effect of Money Advantage on Non-Incumbent Candidates\"}\"><strong>Effect of Money Advantage on Non-Incumbent Candidates<\/strong><\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Legislative Candidates With Neither Incumbency nor Monetary Advantage in Contested General Elections\"}\">Legislative Candidates With Neither Incumbency nor Monetary Advantage in Contested General Elections<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":42}\">42<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Success Rate of Legislative Candidates With Neither Advantage\"}\">Success Rate of Legislative Candidates With Neither Advantage<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0%\",1]\">0%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Hawaii's Rank Among the fifty U.S. states:\"}\">Hawaii's Rank Among the fifty U.S. states:<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":50}\">50<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Legislative Non-Incumbents With Monetary Advantage in Contested General Elections\"}\">Legislative Non-Incumbents With Monetary Advantage in Contested General Elections<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":6}\">6<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Success Rate of Legislative Non-Incumbents With Monetary Advantage\"}\">Success Rate of Legislative Non-Incumbents With Monetary Advantage<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":1}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0%\",1]\"><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><strong>100%<\/strong><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Hawaii's Rank Among the fifty U.S. states:\"}\">Hawaii's Rank Among the fifty U.S. states:<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":50}\">50<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Both Primary and General Election Races, 2015 & 2016\"}\"><h4><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Both Primary and General Election Races, 2015 & 2016<\/strong><\/span><\/h4><\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Success Rate Among All Winners\"}\"><strong>Success Rate Among All Winners<\/strong><\/td><td data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,2,\"#,##0\",1]\">\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Number of Legislative Winners\"}\">Number of Legislative Winners<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":64}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,2,\"#,##0\",1]\">64<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Number of Incumbent Legislative Winners\"}\">Number of Incumbent Legislative Winners<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":58}\">58<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Percent of Legislative Incumbent Winners\"}\">Percent of Legislative Incumbent Winners<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0.91}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0%\",1]\">91%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Success Rate Among Legislative Incumbents\"}\"><strong>Success Rate Among Legislative Incumbents<\/strong><\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Number of Legislative Incumbents\"}\">Number of Legislative Incumbents<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":61}\">61<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Number of Incumbent Legislative Winners\"}\">Number of Incumbent Legislative Winners<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":58}\">58<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Percent of Legislative Incumbents Who Won\"}\">Percent of Legislative Incumbents Who Won<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0.95}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0%\",1]\"><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><strong>95%<\/strong><\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><p><strong>Source:\u00a0<\/strong><a class=\"in-cell-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.followthemoney.org\/research\/institute-reports\/money-incumbency-in-2015-and-2016-state-legislative-races\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">O'Neill, Ciara, Money and Incumbency in State Legislative Races, 2015 and 2016, National Institute on Money on Money in Politics, November 1, 20<\/a><\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Competitiveness of Hawaii Legislative Elections<\/strong><\/h3><h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>(Compiled by J.H. Snider)<\/strong><\/h4><p>\u00a0<\/p><table dir=\"ltr\" border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\"><colgroup> <col width=\"254\" \/> <col width=\"83\" \/> <col width=\"75\" \/> <col width=\"66\" \/><\/colgroup><tbody><tr><td>\u00a0<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"House\"}\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>House<\/strong><\/span><\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Senate\"}\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Senate<\/strong><\/span><\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Totals\"}\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Totals<\/strong><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Total Seats\"}\">Total Seats<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":51}\">51<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":25}\">25<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":76}\">76<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Up for grabs in 2018\"}\">Up for grabs in 2018<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":51}\">51<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":13}\">13<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":64}\">64<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Primary Election (Aug. 11, 2018 )\"}\"><strong>Primary Election (Aug. 11, 2018 )<\/strong><\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Seats up for grabs with all incumbents\"}\">Seats up for grabs with all incumbents<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":44}\">44<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":10}\">10<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":54}\">54<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Incumbents who lost #\"}\">Incumbents who lost #<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":2}\">2<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":1}\">1<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":3}\">3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Incumbents who lost %\"}\">Incumbents who lost %<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0.045454545454545456}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0.0%\"]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-1]C[0]\/R[-2]C[0]\">4.5%<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0.1}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0.0%\"]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-1]C[0]\/R[-2]C[0]\">10.0%<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0.05555555555555555}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0.0%\"]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-1]C[0]\/R[-2]C[0]\">5.6%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Seats up for grabs with elected incumbents\"}\">Seats up for grabs with elected incumbents<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":43}\">43<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":10}\">10<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":53}\">53<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Elected incumbents who lost #\"}\">Elected incumbents who lost #<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":1}\">1<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":1}\">1<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":2}\">2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Elected incumbents who lost %\"}\">Elected incumbents who lost %<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0.023255813953488372}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0.0%\"]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-1]C[0]\/R[-2]C[0]\">2.3%<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0.1}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0.0%\"]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-1]C[0]\/R[-2]C[0]\">10.0%<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0.03773584905660377}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0.0%\"]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-1]C[0]\/R[-2]C[0]\">3.8%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Incumbent Re-election Rate:<\/span><\/strong><\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Incumbent Re-election Rate:#\"}\">\u00a0<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0.9622641509433962}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0.0%\"]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=1-R[-1]C[0]\"><strong><span style=\"color: #993300;\">96.2%<\/span><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Unapposed incumbents\"}\">Unapposed incumbents<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":17}\">17<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":1}\">1<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":18}\">18<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Democrats without a Republican challenger\"}\">Democrats without a Republican challenger<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\">\u00a0<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":39}\">39<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"2016-2018 Partisan Makeup of State Legislature*\"}\"><div><div><strong>2016-2018 Partisan Makeup of State Legislature*<\/strong><\/div><\/div><\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Democrats #\"}\">Democrats #<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":46}\">46<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":25}\">25<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":71}\">71<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Republicans #\"}\">Republicans #<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":5}\">5<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0}\">0<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":5}\">5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Democrats %\"}\">Democrats %<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0.9019607843137255}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0.0%\"]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-2]C[0]\/R[-19]C[0]\">90.2%<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":1}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0.0%\"]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-2]C[0]\/R[-19]C[0]\">100.0%<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0.9342105263157895}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0.0%\"]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-2]C[0]\/R[-19]C[0]\">93.4%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Republicans %\"}\">Republicans %<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0.0980392156862745}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0.0%\"]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=1-R[-1]C[0]\">9.8%<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0.0%\"]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=1-R[-1]C[0]\">0.0%<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0.06578947368421051}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0.0%\"]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=1-R[-1]C[0]\">6.6%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Expected Partisan Makeup of State Legislature After Nov. 6, 2018 General Election**\"}\"><div><div><strong>Expected Partisan Makeup of State Legislature After Nov. 6, 2018 General Election**<\/strong><\/div><\/div><\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"text-align: left;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Democrats #\"}\">Democrats #<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":47}\">47<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":25}\">25<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":72}\">72<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"text-align: left;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Republicans #\"}\">Republicans #<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":4}\">4<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0}\">0<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":4}\">4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Democrats %\"}\">Democrats %<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0.9215686274509803}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0.0%\"]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-2]C[0]\/R[-25]C[0]\">92.2%<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":1}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0.0%\"]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-2]C[0]\/R[-25]C[0]\">100.0%<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0.9473684210526315}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0.0%\"]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-2]C[0]\/R[-25]C[0]\">94.7%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Republicans %\"}\">Republicans %<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0.0784313725490196}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0.0%\"]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-2]C[0]\/R[-26]C[0]\">7.8%<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0.0%\"]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-2]C[0]\/R[-26]C[0]\">0.0%<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":0.05263157894736842}\" data-sheets-numberformat=\"[null,3,\"0.0%\"]\" data-sheets-formula=\"=R[-2]C[0]\/R[-26]C[0]\">5.3%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":2,\"2\":\"Unapposed incumbents\"}\">Unapposed incumbents<\/td><td>\u00a0<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\">\u00a0<\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sheets-value=\"{\"1\":3,\"3\":36}\">36<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>* Of all fifty state legislatures in the United States, Hawaii ranks first in one-party rule for the 2016-2018 legislative session whether the metric is the State Senate, the State House, or the combined Legislature. See the raw data at https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Partisan_composition_of_state_legislatures.<\/div><\/div><div><div>** As Civil Beat Reporter Marcel Honore observed: \"The close candidate races this year all appear to have been resolved in the primary election....\" See Honore, Marcel, \"The Primary Is Over So What\u2019s Ahead For The General Election?\", Civil Beat, August 16, 2018.<\/div><\/div><div><div># This is higher than the much maligned average incumbent re-election rate of the U.S. Congress between 1964 and the present. See Reelection Rates Over the Years, Center for Responseive Politics, https:\/\/www.opensecrets.org\/overview\/reelect.php. It is also higher than the similarly maligned average incumbent re-election rate for state legislatures from 2001-2016. See Success Rates in Contested General Elections for State Legislatures, 2001-2016, National Institute of Money in State Politics, https:\/\/www.followthemoney.org\/research\/institute-reports\/money-incumbency-in-2015-and-2016-state-legislative-races.<\/div><\/div><p><strong>Sources:\u00a0 \u00a0<\/strong><a class=\"in-cell-link\" href=\"https:\/\/elections.hawaii.gov\/wp-content\/results\/histatewide.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">August 11, 2018 Primary Election Results, Hawaii State Office of Elections<\/a>;\u00a0<a class=\"in-cell-link\" href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Partisan_composition_of_state_legislatures\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Partisan composition of state legislatures, Ballotpedia. Access August 16, 2018.<\/a><\/p>","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1352","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Competitiveness of Legislative Elections - The Hawaii State Constitutional Convention Clearinghouse<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/hawaii.concon.info\/?page_id=1352\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Competitiveness of Legislative Elections - The Hawaii State Constitutional Convention Clearinghouse\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Hawai\u02bbi State Constitutional Convention Clearinghouse Information Related to Hawai\u02bbi&#039;s November 6, 2018 State Constitutional Convention ReferendumNote the paradox between low legislative approval and high legislative entrenchment. &nbsp; Articles on Legislature Incumbent Entrenchment &nbsp; Incumbent Re-election Rates Snider, J.H.,\u00a0Want Term Limits? 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