The Hawaiʻi
State Constitutional Convention Clearinghouse
Information Related to Hawaiʻi's November 6, 2018 State Constitutional Convention Referendum
Note the paradox between low legislative approval and high legislative entrenchment.
Articles on Legislature Incumbent Entrenchment
Incumbent Re-election Rates
Snider, J.H., Want Term Limits? A Con Con Is Your Only Hope, Civil Beat, September 21, 2018.
Primary Election Results, Star-Advertiser, August 12, 2018.
Hill, John, 3 Incumbent Lawmakers Lose State Legislative Seats, Civil Beat, August 11, 2018.
National Data
O’Neill, Ciara, Money and Incumbency in State Legislative Races, 2015 and 2016, National Institute on Money on Money in Politics, November 1, 2017
2016 Election Competitiveness–Senate, 2016 Election Competitiveness–House, BallotPedia. [These are calculation prior to the 2016 election.]
Casey, Linda, 2013 and 2014: Money and Incumbency in State Legislative Races, FollowTheMoney.org, March 9, 2016.
Holden, Zach, 2013 and 2014: Monetary Competitiveness in State Legislative Races, FollowTheMoney.org, March 9, 2016.
Ansolabeher, Stephen, and James Snyder, The Incumbency Advantage in U.S. Elections: An Analysis of State and Federal Offices, 1942-2000, MIT Working Paper, June 2001.
Lack of Political Party Competition
Eagle, Nathan, The Hawaii Republican Party’s Slow Path To Extinction, Civil Beat, August 7, 2018.
Articles on Low Approval of the Legislature
Eagle, Nathan, In Hawaii, People Like Trump Better Than They Like The Legislature, Civil Beat,September 26, 2018.
What grade do you give the just-completed 2018 Legislature?, Honolulu Star-Advertiser, May 4, 2018.
Public Trust in Government: 1958-2017, Pew Research Center, December 14, 2017. Note: Covers the problem of low government trust/approval more generally.
Riffkin, Rebecca, Americans Say Federal Gov’t Wastes 51 Cents on the Dollar; Consider state and local governments a bit less wasteful, Gallup, September 17, 2014.
Articles on Low Turnout
(people are less likely to vote with entrenched incumbents)
Lovell, Blaze, Hawaii’s Voter Turnout Was Almost A Historic Low, Civil Beat, November 7, 2018.
Ryan, Tracy, How To Really Fix Hawaii’s Elections, Civil Beat, August 21, 2018.
Grube, Nick, Hawaii Sets Record Low for Voter Turnout in a General Election, Civil Beat, November 4, 2014.
Editorial: 34.8 Percent Turnout? Hawaii Must Do Better, Civil Beat, August 22, 2018.
Teague, Courtney, How Low Is Hawaii Voter Turnout?, Civil Beat, June 22, 2018.
Hawaii Office of Elections. Turnout at August 11, 2018 Primary Election: 38.6%. This turnout figure is based on voters/registered voters, not voters/eligible voters. Not all eligible voters register to vote.
National and Academic Data
Marschall, Melissa, and John Lappie. Rules, Politics, and Policy, Election Law Journal, September 2018. “[B]allots with more contested races draw more voters to the polls… contestation is likely to stimulate more interest, mobilize more voters, and ultimately increase turnout.”
2016 State Voter Turnout Rankings in America Goes to the Polls, Nonprofit Vote, 2017.
2016 November General Election Turnout Rates, United States Election Project. Available at http://www.electproject.org/2016g.
Sauter, Michael, States With the Highest (and Lowest) Voter Turnout, 24/7 WallSt, October 17, 2016.
2016 November General Election Turnout Rates, United States Election Project.
Sutter, John D., Hawaii: The state that doesn’t vote, CNN, Oct. 24, 2012
For an academic study, see Marschall, Melissa, and John Lappie, Turnout in Local Elections: Is Timing Really Everything?, Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy, Vol. 17, No. 3, September 18, 2018.
Advantage of Incumbency & Money in Hawaii State Legislative Races, 2015-2016
(Data Compiled by National Institute of Money in State Politics)
Contested General Election Races, 2015 & 2016 |
|
| Money Advantage | |
| Number of Legislative Incumbents | 34 |
| Number of Legislative Incumbent Monetary Leaders | 32 |
| Percent of Legislative Incumbents Who Were Monetary Leaders | 95% |
| Money and Incumbency Advantage | |
| Success Percent of Monetary Legislative Leaders | 100% |
| Success Percent of Legislative Incumbents | 94% |
| Success Percent of Legislative Incumbent Monetary Leaders | 100% |
| Contested Seats | |
| Number of Legislative Seats Up for Election | 64 |
| Number of Contested Legislative Seats | 38 |
| Percent of Legislative Seats in Contested Races | 59% |
| Effect of Money Advantage on Non-Incumbent Candidates | |
| Legislative Candidates With Neither Incumbency nor Monetary Advantage in Contested General Elections | 42 |
| Success Rate of Legislative Candidates With Neither Advantage | 0% |
| Hawaii’s Rank Among the fifty U.S. states: | 50 |
| Legislative Non-Incumbents With Monetary Advantage in Contested General Elections | 6 |
| Success Rate of Legislative Non-Incumbents With Monetary Advantage | 100% |
| Hawaii’s Rank Among the fifty U.S. states: | 50 |
Both Primary and General Election Races, 2015 & 2016 |
|
| Success Rate Among All Winners | |
| Number of Legislative Winners | 64 |
| Number of Incumbent Legislative Winners | 58 |
| Percent of Legislative Incumbent Winners | 91% |
| Success Rate Among Legislative Incumbents | |
| Number of Legislative Incumbents | 61 |
| Number of Incumbent Legislative Winners | 58 |
| Percent of Legislative Incumbents Who Won | 95% |
Note: Some of this data was discussed in Snider, J.H., Want Term Limits? A Con Con Is Your Only Hope, Civil Beat, September 21, 2018.
Competitiveness of Hawaii Legislative Elections
(Data Compiled by J.H. Snider)
| House | Senate | Totals | |
| Total Seats | 51 | 25 | 76 |
| Up for grabs in 2018 | 51 | 13 | 64 |
| Primary Election (Aug. 11, 2018 ) | |||
| Seats up for grabs with all incumbents | 44 | 10 | 54 |
| Incumbents who lost # | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Incumbents who lost % | 4.5% | 10.0% | 5.6% |
| Seats up for grabs with elected incumbents | 43 | 10 | 53 |
| Elected incumbents who lost # | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Elected incumbents who lost % | 2.3% | 10.0% | 3.8% |
| Incumbent Re-election Rate: | 96.2% | ||
| Unapposed incumbents | 17 | 1 | 18 |
| Democrats without a Republican challenger | 39 | ||
|
2016-2018 Partisan Makeup of State Legislature*
|
|||
| Democrats # | 46 | 25 | 71 |
| Republicans # | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Democrats % | 90.2% | 100.0% | 93.4% |
| Republicans % | 9.8% | 0.0% | 6.6% |
|
Expected Partisan Makeup of State Legislature After Nov. 6, 2018 General Election**
|
|||
| Democrats # | 47 | 25 | 72 |
| Republicans # | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Democrats % | 92.2% | 100.0% | 94.7% |
| Republicans % | 7.8% | 0.0% | 5.3% |
| Unapposed incumbents | 36 |
Sources: August 11, 2018 Primary Election Results, Hawaii State Office of Elections; Partisan composition of state legislatures, Ballotpedia. Access August 16, 2018.
Note: Some of this data was discussed in Snider, J.H., Want Term Limits? A Con Con Is Your Only Hope, Civil Beat, September 21, 2018.
Projected Competitiveness After the Nov. 6 Election
See Klarner Politics.